Saturday, July 01, 2023

A Synodal Church: Dream or Reality?

           The 26th Synod of Bishops will soon be held with the theme “Towards a Synodal Church: Communion, Participation and Mission.” The process of preparing for the synod is unprecedented since it involves listening not just to the bishops but to the faithful all over the world - at the parish, diocesan and regional levels. It is more inclusive and participative.

The purpose of the consultation and the synod which is found in the preparatory document (PD 32) is “not to produce documents but to plant dreams, draw forth prophecies and visions, allow hope to be nourished, inspire trust, bind wounds, weave together relationships, awaken a dawn of hope, learn from one another, and create a bright resourcefulness that will enlighten minds, warm hearts, give strengths to our hands.” A clearer purpose can be found in PD 1 of the preparatory document:

“Pope Francis invites the entire Church to reflect on a theme that is decisive for its life and mission: it is precisely this path of synodality which God expects of the Church Millenium. This journey, which follows in the wake of the Church’s renewal proposed by Vatican II is both a gift and a task: by journeying together and reflecting together on a journey that has been made, the Church will be able to learn from her experiences which processes can help to live in communion, to achieve participation, to open herself to mission. Our journeying together is, in fact, what most effectively enacts and manifests the nature of the Church as a pilgrim and missionary People of God.”

 

Relying solely on the collated report and synthesis of the consultation based on the process of spiritual conversation, sharing of stories, feelings and dreams is not enough. A critical assessment and analysis of the current state of the Church (from the local to the universal level) is also needed so that concrete steps can be adopted to make the Synodal Church a reality.

The questions that must ultimately be answered by every local Church and the Synod of Bishops are: what does it mean to be a synodal Church? To what extent are we living the vision of the Synodal Church? What more can we do to become truly a Synodal Church?

This requires reviewing the vision of the Church in Vatican II and its reception in PCP II which is the ecclesiological basis and frame of reference of a Synodal Church. Based on this review of the vision, a critical assessment must be made on how the Church has truly been experienced as communion, participation and mission.  Then proposals are put forward based on the results of the evaluation which can be the basis for pastoral planning.

It is not enough to listen to the voice of the lay faithful coming from the mandated organizations and renewal movements. The voice of the poor and marginalized need to be listened to. The Basic Ecclesial Communities, clergy, religious and theologians must also be heard. The bishops should listen and share their observation and analysis from a broader perspective. This cannot be done only during a pre-synodal consultation. This is a long, tedious, continuing process which requires wider participation.

The process should involve clarifying and owning the vision of the Church of Vatican II which has been appropriated by PCP II: The Church as Communion and Pilgrim People of God that participates in Christ’s prophetic, priestly and kingly (servant mission). This is the ecclesiological vision that is the basis of the Synodal Church.

An assessment has to be made regarding the reality of communion in the Church – the sense of belonging, sharing and participation among the leaders and members of the Church - with each other and with other Christian denominations. How far and deep is the communitarian dimension experienced in various levels of the Church (BECs, parish, diocese, local, universal, etc.)? What has been achieved so far? What is lacking or leaves much to be desired?

What are the structures of communion and participation that have emerged and how operational are they? (Parish Pastoral Council, Parish Finance Council, Parish Assembly, BECs, diocesan synod or pastoral assembly, parish/diocesan commissions, stewardship program, etc.). How inclusive and participative is the clergy’s style of leadership at the parish and diocesan level?  What is the extent of the laity’s participation in decision-making, planning and implementation?

Participation is intimately linked with mission – the prophetic, priestly and kingly/servant mission that is carried out in within and beyond the boundaries of the Church – local and universal. Mission is not merely carried out in distant places where the gospel has not yet been heard and the Church not yet implanted. The Church’s mission is carried out everywhere: in the home, neighborhood, parishes, communities, the workplace, educational institutions, in the cyberspace, in pluralistic societies that have become secularized and de-Christianized, in places where the Church membership is aging and shrinking while former colonies and mission territories in Africa, Asia and Latin America are more vibrant and have become the center of the Church’s gravity and growth.

There is need to assess the active participation of everyone especially the laity – not just the clergy and the religious - in the prophetic mission – the mission of evangelization, catechesis, in being a conscience in society which involves denouncing sin and evil and calling people to conversion. This involves proclaiming the message of peace, justice, the sacredness of life, the integrity of creation and other social and moral teachings of the Church.

The liturgical celebrations should also be evaluated. How meaningful, participative, inculturated and inclusive are these? Do our liturgies deepen our communion with the triune God and with one another and inspire us to fulfill our prophetic and social mission?

Active participation in the Church’s social mission as kingly/servant people should also be assessed. What are the existing communal processes and concrete action that address the problems that we face (e.g.  poverty, injustice, violence, the destruction of the environment and climate change, etc.)?

It is important to appreciate the achievements and best practices/processes that have helped in enhancing communion, participation and mission. At the same time there must be recognition of the lacks and weaknesses. These can be the basis for pastoral planning at various levels so as to continue the journey as a synodal Church.

Synodality is not just journeying together and listening to each other. It involves acting together in carrying out the Church’s mission as a community. Synodality should be experienced at all levels – in the home, neighborhood, BECs, parish, diocese, national, regional and universal. Over sixty years ago, St. John XXIII convened Vatican II to reform and renew the Church. With this synod, Pope Francis is continuing the process of post-conciliar reception and implementation in rapidly changing situation emphasizing the need to make the vision of a renewed Church a reality by being a Synodal Church. This is the collective task of all members of the Church.

Monday, January 16, 2023

The Philippine Situation and Challenges for the Church's Mission

 The Philippine Situation and Challenges for the Church’s Mission

Fr. Amado L. Picardal, CSsR, STD

 

As we discern how we should carry out our mission at present and in the years to come, it is important to look at the big picture and the long view as well as the challenges the Church is facing in the Philippines. This can help us come up with strategic directions and policies for our respective dioceses, parishes, congregations and organizations.

The first part of this paper is an overview taking into consideration the various aspects and dimensions of the Philippine situation: the pandemic, economic, ecological, demographic, political, cultural-religious, and ecclesial. The second part focuses on the challenges for Church’s mission: (1) communion & solidarity, (2) prophetic evangelization & education, (3) worship & liturgy, (4) social action. The last part is devoted to participation of the laity in the Church’s mission in partnership with the clergy and religious. 

The content of this paper is my own opinion as a theologian, human rights advocate and a hermit. My assessment of the situation is based on my research, observation and synthesis of various views of experts in their own field.

 

 An Overview of the Situation

 

The Pandemic

After three years since the outbreak of the pandemic, everything appears to be going back to normal as the case infections and fatality rates go down. Majority of the population have been vaccinated. Restrictions have been lowered. No more lockdown or community quarantine.  There is less emphasis on social distancing and the wearing of facemask is no longer strictly enforced.

The WHO is reminding everyone that the crisis is not yet over.  New variants of the virus have emerged.  China – the origin of the virus which adopted a Zero Covid policy for the last three years is being hit with three waves or “tsunami” of the infections after easing restrictions. The Chinese National Health Commission in an internal document reported 248 million cases of infection in less than three weeks in December 2022 and 37 million in a single day a few days before Christmas. There are fears that new variants of the virus which is highly contagious, virulent and resistant to vaccines could once again spread throughout the whole world like in 2020. The Philippine government has not restricted flights from China.  

There is still no DOH secretary which sends a message that addressing the pandemic and new variants is not a priority. This is alarming as the pandemic is far from over. Like in the past, the government has not taken steps to prevent flights coming in from China. The public health system has not been overhauled which makes the country incapable of dealing with any new outbreak.

 

Economic

 The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have a disastrous long-term impact on the global economy. The cost of energy, fertilizers, metals, and food continue to rise and are become scarce. While another Great Depression predicted by many economists have not yet come to pass, what is most probable is long term recession and stagflation – a stagnant economy with little or no growth accompanied by high inflation. The Philippine GDP has grown by 7.6 percent during the last quarter of this year but the inflation rate is over 8.1 percent compared to 3.1 in December 2021. The rising prices of basic commodities, declining purchasing power of the peso and the lack of jobs affect the majority of Filipinos. The inequality, the inflation and huge debt makes any figure of a rise in GDP meaningless.

The national debt has ballooned (P13.5 trillion) and continue to rise rapidly due to government misspending, corruption and the weakening of the peso against the dollar. The agricultural sector is being severely hit due to rising prices and scarcity of fertilizers (Ukraine and Russia are the major sources of grains and fertilizer).   This could bring about a food crisis and hunger in many nations including the Philippines. The other factors affecting agriculture and food security is the climate change (droughts, super-typhoon, floods) and the conversion of arable land into subdivisions. The reliance on imports of rice and other agricultural products have further weakened the agricultural sector.

Deglobalization has accelerated due to the pandemic and the War in Ukraine that is disrupting the global supply chain, the reshoring of production and manufacturing in the US and Europe. Developed countries are adopting protectionist and self-sufficient policies. Deglobalization prevents poorer countries raise their standard of living and raise the cost of goods. China and other less developed countries like the Philippines can no longer expect influx of foreign investments and the opening of new factories. As the neo-liberal and global capitalist economic order is unraveling, a new economic system is emerging based on renewable energy and digital/information technology. This new industrial revolution will continue to evolve rapidly within this decade with the exponential growth of new technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence, robotics, 3-D printing, etc.).  The Philippines and other less developed economies are at the losing end of the emerging new economic order unless they are able to adapt.

The Philippine government lacks competence to address strategically the economic crisis and rapid changes in the global economy. The financial and economic managers recycled from previous administration operate in outmoded neoliberal model and policies (export-oriented/import dependent economy).  There is no functioning Department of Agriculture secretary (BBM appointed himself) and there is no coherent plan to address the looming agricultural/food crisis. The president and his allies are pushing for the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund (Maharlika Investment Fund) which many oppose because the country does not have surplus fund or revenues. This can lead to more debts and vulnerable to plunder.

The number of Filipinos who rate themselves poor has increased. The SWS 2022 national survey reported that 50 percent of households consider themselves poor, 30 percent at the borderline and 20 percent not poor. More and more Filipinos are unemployed and underemployed. No economic progress is expected within this decade. Each one will have to fend for themselves without expecting the government to come to their aid unless civil society groups and the private sector step in to help those in need.

The Philippines will continue to depend on OFW remittances to keep the economy afloat as there are still enough young people that can supply labor shortage in Europe and North America due to aging and shrinking population there.  This is resulting in brain-drain as the best and brightest continue to go abroad in search for a better future. The dream of many Filipinos is to find work in foreign lands rather than stay home where wages are low and job opportunities are lacking.

 

Ecology

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. Extreme weather patterns (super-typhoon, flooding, drought) continue to be felt. The rising sea levels due to climate change will inundate cities and towns in the decades to come unless the rise in temperature is kept below 1.5 degrees C to pre-industrial level. There seems to be a lack of awareness and concern about the ecological crisis among many  people and the government. The Duterte administration has been remiss in addressing climate change and the environmental degradation. Although the Philippines made a commitment in the UN-COP to reduce GHG emissions by 50 percent by the end of the decade and carbon neutrality by 2050, no program and concerted efforts have been made to achieve this goal.

In his speech before the UN, President Marcos Jr (BBM) expressed concern about the climate change crisis. His appointment of a competent secretary of DENR – Toni Yulo-Loyzaga is a good sign that the climate emergency can be addressed under his administration.   However, the government still lacks a strategy to mitigate the effects of climate change, to lessen dependence on fossil fuels and shift to renewable energy.  There are plans to revive the Bataan Nuclear plant – a project of the late Ferdinand E. Marcos, Sr. Meanwhile, mining which is being carried out by companies owned by politicians or businessmen close to them continues which contribute to the destruction of the environment. While coal-fired powerplants are being closed down in various parts of the world, many of these are still being built and operated in the country which contributes to GHG emissions.

On the bright side, there are some business corporations that are beginning to invest in renewable energy such as solar and wind. More and more people are also adopting solar energy as the prices of electricity continues to rise.

 

Demographic

The population of the Philippines has breached 110 million. The average women’s fertility rate is 2.4 which is over the 2.1 replacement level.  This is good news since most of the countries in Europe, North America, Latin America, Middle East and Asia are facing a demographic decline and their population are aging and shrinking. The fertility rates of these countries are way below replacement level and this can lead to depopulation and consequent economic crisis.

The advantage of the Philippines at present is that over 52 percent of the population are young (between 18-40) and Filipinos can continue to fill up the shortage of labor in other countries. Thus, overseas migration and brain drain will continue and increase as opportunities for employment within the country are scarce. Internal migration -- from the rural areas to urban areas will continue. Over 50 percent of the population are living in the urban areas.

In less than 10 years, the fertility rate could go below the replacement level. Even now, the families are getting smaller.  Within the next twenty years, the Philippines will also experience an aging and shrinking population like the rest of the world.

 

Political

There have been changes in the political landscape with the election of Ferdinand E. Marcos Jr (BBM) after what many consider as a successful disinformation campaign and massive vote-buying. The alleged electronic manipulation of the election results has still to be proven as a writ of mandamus has already by filed in the Supreme Court for COMELEC to show the transmission log due to the unbelievable 20 million votes that were reported within the first hour after the close of the balloting. In the absence of hard evidence, Leni Robredo did not file any protest.

With a landslide victory, BBM has a supermajority in the House of Representatives and the senate which gives him total control of the legislative branch. Like the Marcoses and Dutertes, most of the members of the legislature as well as the governors and mayors belong to traditional political dynasties whose primary interest is to maintain power and their business interests. Many were elected not for their competence but their influence and popularity.  Many are involved in graft and corruption to perpetuate themselves in power. The Uniteam, the coalition of traditional political parties that supported Marcos-Sara candidacy, lack cohesion. There is no ruling or dominant political party with a clear legislative agenda that would benefit the common good.  BBM has not asserted his power in the choice of senate president and the speaker of the House of Representatives.

 BBM style of leadership is primarily laissez-faire or hands-off. He lacks the will to control or dominate (unlike his father or his predecessor).  He appears more of a figurehead than a leader. He doesn’t have any strategic vision and direction for the country. All he cares about is redeeming the family honor, basking in the glory of his position and squandering the resources of the country for a lavish lifestyle. He prefers partying and traveling than do serious work. Lacking competence and experience in governance, BBM has to depend on those around him in making key decisions. His secret weapon is his wife, Liza, who many consider as the brains and power behind the throne. He also listens to the advice of former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo especially in foreign relations and economic matters. The other members of the family, Imee and Imelda, don’t have much influence (he vetoed Imee’s pet bill – the Bulacan Economic Zone).

BBM’s appointment in key positions in his administration appears to be erratic. In less than one hundred days he sacked his executive secretary Victor Rodriguez, press secretary Trixie Cruz-Angeles and COA head Calida. He sacked the BIR head and appointed Romeo Lumagui (the husband of his wife’s trusted aide) thereby assuring that the agency could reassess the P203 billion estate tax the Marcoses owe. He appointed Remulla as secretary of the Department of Justice whose son was arrested for smuggling illegal drugs but was immediately acquitted after three months (meanwhile, ex-senator Leila De Lima continues to be detained five years after being falsely accused in the drug trade without any evidence). He appointed himself as secretary of the department of agriculture. He appointed Sara Duterte secretary of education even without any competence and experience in the field of education (she wanted to be defense secretary). He appointed a retired PNP chief who doesn’t have any expertise in health as undersecretary of DOH. He sacked the AFP chief of staff General Bacarro who was supposed to have a fixed term of three years and re-appointed former chief of staff General Centino. This is causing discontent among top officers in the AFP and led to the resignation of acting secretary of defense Gen. Faustino who learned about the change of chief of staff in the news and social media.  He was replaced by ret. General Galvez. National Security adviser Clarita Carlos also resigned and was replace by ret. General Ano. Galvez and Ano held key positions in Duterte’s cabinet.

Although BBM promised to continue Duterte’s policies during the campaign to gain his support, there have been major changes especially in the War on Drugs and in foreign relations. The bloody campaign against illegal drugs is being replaced by the new campaign called BIDA (Buhay Ingatan Droga Ayawan) which focuses on drug rehabilitation and going after drug lords. This is going to be difficult since there are many PNP officials involved in the illegal drug trade according. In order to cleanse the PNP DILG secretary Benhur Abalos has asked for the courtesy resignation of all the PNP generals and colonels – a move supported by BBM which can lessen the influence of Duterte in the PNP.   Although there are still extrajudicial killings in some parts of the country (173 cases during the first six months of BBM’s presidency), these do not indicate to be an integral part of this administration’s War on Drugs unlike the time of Duterte.  Top ranking PNP officers associated with Duterte (the Davao Group) and linked with implementing EJK have not been assigned to key positions.

 BBM has junked the possibility of rejoining the International Criminal Court.  This is not an assurance that Duterte is safe from investigation and prosecution by the ICC. The government’s request for a deferral of the ICC investigation of Duterte’s war on drugs is an indication that the Philippines will follow the judicial process of the Hague and will abide by the decision of the pre-trial chamber. This seems to be in line with BBM’s efforts to impress and convince the UN, EU and the US that the Philippines is committed to uphold human rights and other international agreements. UN rapporteurs on child trafficking and extrajudicial killings are allowed to enter the country.

Another significant change is in foreign relations. Unlike Duterte, BBM has not shown fierce loyalty and subservience to China and Russia. Nor has he shown antipathy to the US and the EU. In fact, he is moving closer to the US and has allowed the continuation of the Balikatan Exercises. He has met with US President Joe Biden. In line with its priority to contain China’s influence, the US continues to woo the Philippines and has provided military aid assuring the country of upholding the mutual defense treaty. At the same time, BBM has assured China of continuing friendship which he manifested in his meeting with Xi Jinping at the height of the tsunami of infection in China. He is open to a joint oil exploration in the West Philippine Sea while insisting respect on the Hague’s arbitral ruling that affirmed the Philippine’s territorial claim covered by country’s exclusive economic zone. He is also bound by the recent Supreme Court ruling that only the Philippines has control and supervision in exploring its natural resources.

The recent changes appear to widen the rift between BBM and Duterte which started during the campaign period when Duterte insinuated that BBM is a weakling and an addict. Although Duterte has not publicly criticized BBM after the elections, his minions are doing so in Quiboloy’s SMNI TV station and in social media. This became evident in the investigation of the killing of the journalist Percy Lapid which led to the suspension of alleged mastermind Bilibid director Gen. Bantag (a Duterte appointee) and the appointment of retired Gen. Catapang (former President Noynoy Aquino’s close friend).  Criticism of BBM is also coming from some Marcos Vloggers and loyalists who call his wife Liza  “ahas sa Malacanang” for  the appointment of  many “Dilawans” to various key positions in government.

            So far, there is no political party acting as genuine opposition. The PDP-Laban wing of Duterte has been talking about exercising the role of fiscalizer – a veiled threat of becoming an opposition party. The lone opposition figure now is Risa Hontiveros although Koko Pimentel is the senate minority floor leader. The Pink Movement that supported the candidacy of Leni Robredo has dissipated and reduced to an NGO (Angat Buhay Foundation). Robredo has not exercised leadership in the political sphere after losing in the election. She prefers to focus on continuing the social-economic programs for the poor and the needy. She has not ruled out engagement in the political arena in the future.

The government remains stable for the moment. There are few protesters out in the streets. The influence of progressive and leftist organizations appears to have declined although some have retained seats in congress (Bayan Muna). Red-tagging persists but not on the same intensity and scale as the previous Duterte administration. The CPP/NDF/NPA continue to wage armed struggle. Even with the death of senior leaders including Joma Sison, the armed insurgency continues to drag on although the chance of victory is farfetched. The possibility of resumption of peace negotiations is still remote.  This is not part of the government’s agenda. The TF ELCAC (Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict) which has P20 billion budget has focused on red-tagging and pouring money to local government units (the budget has been reduced to P6 Billion for the coming fiscal year). The economic and food crises if not addressed will only lead to more unrest and intensify the insurgency.

During his campaign, BBM promised to unite the country and bring back the golden era of his father.  If he is unable to unite and lead the country to surmount the multiple crises – pandemic, economic, food, climate change – many of the people, including those who supported him, will be angered and feel they have been duped. The idea of BBM as a would-be dictator seems out of character unless he transmogrifies into one. There will be no need for him to declare martial law or impose authoritarian rule as long as there are no crises that can precipitate social unrest and the resurgence of a revolutionary movement that would threaten his family’s hold on power.  What happens when his term of office ends is anyone’s guess – another Marcos succeeding him or Duterte II (Sara) which can prolong the long dark night.

 

Cultural/Religious

The state of the mind and soul of Filipinos defy generalization.  On the one hand, majority of Filipinos are deeply religious as shown by the large numbers that attend religious activities – e.g. masses, novenas, processions, fiesta celebration, etc. They believe in God and in miracles. They expect divine intervention in everything. For many, what happens – good or bad - is the will of God.

Secularism, which has spread and influenced Europe and North America, has failed to gain a foothold in the country. The Philippines has the third largest Catholic population in the world. It holds the record of the largest number that attended a papal mass – seven million in Manila during the visit of Pope Francis in 2015. Yet a year later, the majority voted into office a mass murderer with messianic pretension, who cursed the pope and the Church and threatened to kill bishops and priests. Many believed that his election was God’s will. Six years later, the majority elected into office the son of a dictator who promised to bring back the golden age of the Philippines even after being warned by religious leaders of the historical revisionism and the lies being spread in social media by their trolls. He won 61 percent of the vote while the more competent candidates failed to get elected.  Members of political dynasties as well as celebrities and actors were chosen as usual.

If the election was indeed clean and there was no manipulation of election results in spite the allegations by some, one is tempted to conclude that majority of the Filipinos as either gullible or stupid. Or they are too poor and short-sighted that they were willing to sell their votes.

This brings up the role of digital information and communication technology in shaping the minds and hearts of Filipinos.  The social media platforms, such as Facebook, YouTube, Tiktok were used by Trolls in spreading lies and disinformation.

Another factor is the state of education in the Philippines. The Word Bank assessment in 2018-19 reported that 80 percent of Filipino students are below minimum proficiency level and amid the pandemic 90 percent could neither read nor write. Besides lacking in quality, the type of education has failed to inculcate competence, values, critical thinking and discernment. The current secretary education, Sara Duterte, is incompetent to address the poor quality of education. Her priority is to impose mandatory ROTC and teaching school children how to brush their teeth (toothbrush drill) while getting unnecessary confidential fund.

Catholic education and evangelization programs appear to be ineffective in inculcating moral values – in discerning good and evil, truth and lies – and acting and living according to Christian values. Of course, there are Filipinos who are compassionate, competent and kind, who struggle for goodness, truth and justice to prevail but they are a minority.  Many of them are discouraged and sometimes feel hopeless. Others keep on fighting in their own way amidst the darkness, hoping to make a difference.

 

The Catholic Church in the Philippines

In terms of numbers, the Church in the Philippines has over 85 million members – the third largest Catholic population in the world. However, most of the members are nominal and seasonal. 15-20 percent are regular church-goers and the percentage of those who really live as genuine disciples of Christ are even less.

There are over 10,000 priests which is very low compared to the total number of Catholics. This shortage is being remedied by the active participation of lay people in parishes, lay organizations, movements and associations and Basic Ecclesial Communities (BECs).  The formation of BECs in dioceses all over the country remains a pastoral priority of the CBCP and every Trinity Sunday is observed as BEC day.  However, the involvement of men in BECs is still lacking which gives the impression that these are mother’s club that gather’s regularly for bible-sharing.  There is little involvement of BECs in social action, justice and peace.

The involvement of young people in the youth ministry in most dioceses and parishes remains vibrant.  The National Youth Day is regularly observed. However, most of the activities are simply fun-filled, lacking in serious evangelization and inculcation of moral values and social awareness.  There is little involvement in social issues.  They are easily duped and manipulated by lies and disinformation in social media. Majority of young people supported the candidacy of Duterte in 2016 and BBM in 2022.  This calls into question how effective the Church’s youth formation and evangelization program is.

            The tension between the Catholic Church and the present administration is not palpable in spite the critical and prophetic stance of the CBCP against the efforts of BBM in disinformation and historical revisionism during the campaign period. The results of the election reveal the Church’s declining influence in the political arena in spite the endorsement by many priests, religious and lay movements of the candidacy of Leni Robredo.  The last election once again proved that there is no such thing a Catholic command vote unlike the Iglesia Ni Cristo.

Unlike Duterte, BBM appears to avoid an antagonistic stance vis-à-vis the Church. Lines of communication and dialogue between the government and CBCP have been opened.  So far, the Church is on a wait and see attitude.  The CBCP is expected to adopt a policy of critical cooperation with the Marcos government without abandoning its prophetic stance.

During the campaign, a significant number of clergy and religious were active in what others regard as partisan politics. It remains to be seen if they will continue to be involved beyond the election in the broader social concerns especially in addressing issues such as corruption, human rights violation, poverty, climate change.

In view of the ecological crisis, the local Church is seriously heeding the call of Pope Francis to implement the Laudato Si action plan which was launched by the Vatical Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development. Many of the dioceses and religious communities are taking steps to address climate change (e.g.  lifestyle changes, adopting solar energy, etc.)

The local Churches has been involved in the preparation for the 2023 Synod of Bishops on the theme of synodality.  The focus for the post-synodal period will be on how to concretely live out what it means to be a synodal Church. The synodal theme of communion, participation and mission echoes the ecclesiology of Vatican II and PCP II. This is a reminder that the local Church has to continue the reception and implementation of Vatican II and PCP II.

 

The Challenges for the Philippine Church’s Mission

 

Promoting communion and solidarity

In a fragmented and deeply divided society the individualistic ethos is incapable of addressing the multiple crises. The Church’s mission of promoting communion and solidarity at all levels within the Church and in society at large is of vital importance. This is what Pope Francis emphasizes in Fratelli Tutti - to consider one another as brothers, sisters and friends filled with love that impels us to universal communion.

Communion should be experienced within families, in the neighborhood and communities, in society and among nations. It should be promoted among various religious traditions, races and classes. It has an ecumenical, interreligious, intercultural dimension. It has ad-intra (within the Church) and ad-extra (outside the Church) character.

Communion begins at home and extends beyond it. The family should not be isolated from other families. They need to link up with other families and individuals within the immediate neighborhood and local community. Forming or revitalizing a network of small communities/Basic Ecclesial Communities (BECs), cells or family groupings becomes necessary. The parish must become truly a communion of BECs. The model of the Church as described in Acts (2:42-46, 4:32-35) must be experienced once again. The sense of belonging, sharing and the spirit of stewardship must be inculcated as the communitarian dimension is emphasized. This is the antidote to isolation and individualism.

The communion and solidarity of the parishes with the dioceses and wider levels (national, regional, universal) will take on a new form. This is also the case among religious institutes and communities.

In promoting communion and solidarity we should be aware that we are living in the digital era. We stay connected with one another. We can develop or join virtual communities and ecclesial movements that have local, national and global reach through the digital information and communication technology and social media.  With the development of more advanced and cheap technologies all these can be possible even in areas that are remote and distant.

The new digital technology and social media make it possible for regular and direct communication and consultation instantly overcoming physical distance. Leaders and members can be more interconnected. Church leaders should not be isolated but should continually be in touch with each other and the people they serve. Online meetings and assemblies are possible. The clergy should continue to communicate to the faithful and listen to them. A more participative style of leadership is possible avoiding a top-down model. This can be done at all levels – at the local, national, regional, universal level.

Communion involves sharing of resources needed to address the various crises the world is facing. Communion always includes participation in mission. This means synodality –journeying together. Synodality involves participation in the decision-making process -- in governance. It also means participation in mission – the prophetic-evangelizing mission, the priestly mission, and the kingly-servant mission. This synodality – communion and participation in mission – must be realized not only at the universal level but at the local level -at the diocese, down to the parish, BECs and Christian families.

 

Prophetic Evangelization

The prophetic and moral dimension of evangelization and catechesis should be given emphasis. It is not enough to proclaim joyfully God’s liberating love and the basic doctrines of the Christian faith. What matters is inculcating how each one should live as followers of Jesus, in knowing and doing what is good and rejecting sin and evil.

The central message should focus on the following themes:  God’s love for the world – for humanity and all living creatures. We are called to be in communion with the Triune God – the Father, Son and Holy Spirit – and with one another and the rest of creation. We are all interconnected. We all have the responsibility to love, share, care for each one and for all things. We are called to conversion – this means rooting out selfishness, greed, hatred and violence. This requires responding to the cry of the poor and the cry of the earth and promoting justice, peace and integral ecology. We are also called to live a simple and sustainable lifestyle. The social teachings of the Church as well as the papal documents (e.g. Evangelii Gaudium, Laudato Si, Fratelli Tutti) should be studied and propagated.

Christian formation and education should emphasize servant-leadership, participative ethos, creativity rather than submissiveness.  Evangelization requires speaking out against social evils and proclaiming the coming of a new world, a new reality.

In a world where people often subjected to lies and disinformation there is a need to use digital information and communication technology/social media for evangelization, catechesis and education. This means online evangelization seminars and catechesis (webinars). Bible-study/bible-sharing groups can meet online. Mass media communication should go digital and linked with social media. Each diocese and parish must develop their capabilities and come up with quality video-material that can be shared through social media in line with their respective evangelization and catechetical programs.

Face-to-face interaction should still be promoted in smaller scale observing physical distancing and appropriate safety measures as the pandemic continues.  BEC/family-groupings can be the setting for evangelization and catechesis as well as Gospel-sharing.  All these require a dialogical process as well as emphasizing story-telling.

Theologians should address the theological questions arising from the pandemic, economic and the ecological crisis. They can share the fruits of their reflection online and engage in dialogue with other theologians, Church leaders and the faithful. They can also give on-line lectures or webinars when face-to-face gathering is restricted.

 

Worship and Liturgy

The liturgy and other para-liturgical and devotional practices should deepen the bond of communion and solidarity among the faithful. Full and active participation should constantly be emphasized as well as creativity and inculturation.

In order to avoid a split-level type of Christian faith, the liturgy should also be the occasion for prophetic evangelization and catechesis. Social issues related to justice, peace, human rights and the ecology should be integrated in the liturgical celebration. The liturgy should lead the faithful to social action that will transform society, address the various crises that we are facing.

The pandemic has accelerated the use of digital platform and social media in the liturgy. This should be continued even as we encourage people to be physically present.

 

Social Action

The Church continues her mission as a servant community in a situation where the majority suffer due to the effects of the pandemic, economic and ecological crisis. How this is to be carried out concretely depends on the local situation. The See-Judge-Act method is recommended. Concrete action should flow from analysis of the situation (the specific problems and issues that the local Church/community is facing), and the moral judgment.

The priority continues to be the promotion of integral development – working for justice, peace and the integrity of creation.  In face of economic recession or depression, each local Church down to the parish and BEC levels should address the problem of increasing poverty, unemployment and lack of food security which can lead to hunger and even starvation.

Since government efforts to address these problems may be lacking, the local Church in collaboration with civil society organizations has to promote sustainable development and initiate or support poverty-alleviation programs. Credit unions/cooperatives as well as micro-finance programs should be introduced or promoted.

During the pandemic Community Pantries and “Kindness Centers” with feeding programs and food banks proliferated in many parishes. This should be multiplied and expanded. This is difficult to sustain in most parishes with dwindling incomes and resources. Parishioners should be encouraged to share their time, talent and treasure.  Besides giving food, what is more important is to promote local food production such as gardening and communal farms. Families and communities should be taught to engage in natural/organic farming or sustainable agriculture and link up with consumers through social media and e-commerce which bypass middle-men. Parishes and BECs within dioceses with livelihood projects and income-generating programs can engage in alternative trade, organizing networks of production and marketing.

The social action program of the Church should be geared towards promoting and supporting the growth of cooperatives and of medium/small scale/cottage industries which are community-based or at the grassroots (parish and BEC levels). It should also focus on skills training, capability building and local capitalization. It should address the problem of unemployment and labor displacement due to the economic crisis as well as disruptive technologies brought about by the new industrial revolution. A program for enterprise building and job-placement can be initiated. There are parishes with pious wealthy members who are engaged in business or industries that can be tapped. The principles and best practices of the Economy of Communion (initiated by the Focolare movement) and the Economy of Francesco can be adopted and further developed.  It should be an economy motivated not primarily by profit but by sharing with the needy and promoting a culture of giving while ensuring business to grow in a free market economy. It should be an economy based on solidarity and the principle of stewardship, living in practice the ecclesiology of communion and in particular the communion of goods where the members are of one heart and mind and no one in need (cf. Acts 4:32-35). It should emphasize sustainability and respect for the environment. This requires the advice and technical assistance of grassroots-oriented technocrats and entrepreneurs as well schools of business and management in Catholic Universities.

We should continue to promote integral ecology according to the spirit of Laudato Si. As a response to ecological crisis, emphasis should be given to the reduction of carbon foot-prints. This involves participation in the Greening movement, tree-planting, micro-gardening (family-community levels), waste-management, biking, walking, etc. adoption and promotion of alternative sources of energy (solar, wind). We should consider adopting solar energy in our houses, rectories, churches and promote this in our parishes. A healthy and simple lifestyle should be promoted which besides reducing carbon footprints can strengthen the immune system against diseases and viruses (plant-based diet, caloric restrictions, intermittent fasting).

While acting locally we need to link-up with each other at various levels – national, regional, global. The Vatican Dicastery for the Promotion of Integral Development in collaboration with the Laudato Si Movement as well as the Sowing Hope for the Planet Campaign are promoting an action plan for the years to come as a concrete response to Laudato Si.

In view of the continuing armed conflict and a possible escalation of social unrest due to the economic and food crisis, we should continue to promote peace and nonviolence. No matter how difficult it is, we have to find ways to convince the government and the CPP/NDF/NPA to resume peace negotiations that will lead to a final peace agreement. The Zones of Peace should be promoted in our parishes and BECs.

To carry out our mission of promoting justice, peace and integrity of creation we need to make full use of digital technology and social media. This is a means for letting us see what is happening all around us – the cry of the earth and the cry of the poor, the effects of the pandemic and the ecological crisis, the injustices and inequality, the violence. This allows us to analyze, reflect and make judgment on what is happening from the perspective of the Christian faith and the Church’s moral and social teaching. This enables us to share our stories – of what we are doing and should be doing – and support each other and express solidarity as we act together to transform and heal the world.

 

Lay Partnership in Mission

Vatican II emphasized active participation of lay people in the life and mission of the Church. This has been affirmed by PCP II. This is once again being given attention in the 2023  Synod of Bishops on Synodality. Lay participation in mission is not limited to lay people who work full-time as lay missionaries and pastoral workers.  It also applies to all lay people in liturgical celebration, in prophetic evangelization & education, and in social action - working for justice, peace and integrity of creation. Sharing their time, talent or expertise, and personal resources lay people should be tapped to volunteer their services to carry out the various programs of the dioceses, parishes & BECs. The spirit of volunteerism should be promoted. Lay people can be encouraged to do this in a part-time basis. Retirees can spend more time being active in the parish and in the mission. A program for young graduates (following the model of the Jesuit Volunteer Program) should be implemented where they can engage in mission & parish work for a couple of years before pursuing their chosen career.  This can be a good time to use whatever learning & skills they have acquired in the service of the Church's mission. This can help deepen their faith and love of the poor. For some, this can also help in awakening vocation to the priesthood and religious life. Partnership of the local Church and religious congregations with vibrant lay renewal movements and organizations is necessary for this. Emphasis on participation of lay people can make up for dwindling vocations and fewer priests and religious. This means doing away with clericalism.   We focus on training and ongoing formation of volunteers who will be filled with missionary dynamism. We also have to focus on leadership formation – of the clergy, religious and lay people.

 

Final Words

We continue to live amidst this long dark night. This can last for a decade or more. The worst is yet to come as we face multiple crises – pandemic, economic, political, demographic, ecological, moral. There are no competent leaders in the political arena who can lead us out of these crises. We cannot expect change from the top. It will come from below. This will require initiative and active participation at all levels of society – including the Church.

As church people and as religious, it is not enough to be missionaries of hope. We cannot continue to operate in a maintenance mode. We have to carry out our mission more effectively. This includes promoting communion & solidarity, prophetic evangelizing, meaningful worship, and social action that leads to social transformation in the context of multiple crises we are facing. This requires strategic thinking and acting. As we fulfil our mission, we are full of hope and become light in the midst of darkness. 

Thursday, April 21, 2022

Philippine Presidential Race 2022: Trends and Post-Election Scenarios

 Presidential Race: Trends and Post-Election Scenarios

Fr. Amado L. Picardal, CSsR

For the last six years, the Philippines has gone through a dark period under a despotic regime comparable to the Marcos era. Duterte’s War on Drugs has claimed the lives of over 34,000 Filipinos – mostly poor people accused of being drug users, human rights defenders and members of militant groups tagged as communists. He is now facing investigation by the  Prosecutor’s Office of the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity. The spiral of violence continues since the breakdown of the peace negotiations between the government and the National Democratic Front. Lumad communities have been subjected to militarization and their schools shut down.

Over 3.68 million have been infected by COVID19 and over 59,000 have died. The government failed to effectively address the pandemic crisis in spite the huge Bayanihan budget due to incompetence and corruption which involve the president and his friends as the finding of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee reported. So far 60 percent has been fully vaccinated and the case infections and mortality rate has gone down. Restrictions have eased although one cannot really be certain that the pandemic crisis is over. There are rising cases in other countries especially like China. Another wave with new variants cannot be ruled out.

The pandemic has affected the economy severely with more Filipinos becoming poorer due to the militaristic approach, long community quarantine, unemployment and bankruptcy. From P6.1 trillion six years ago, the Government’s debt has reached P12 trillion. The Philippines faces great difficulty in coming out from the economic crisis and adapting to the rapidly changing global economic system based on the emergence of a new industrial revolution based on renewable energy and the digital information and communication technology.  The Russian invasion in Ukraine which threatens to involve the NATO and escalate into a wider war has triggered an economic crisis related to the energy crisis as well as food crisis considering that Ukraine and Russia are the main sources of gas, oil, grains and fertilizers. The global economy will continue to face recession in the years to come. The ecological crisis is not being seriously addressed as the government continues policies that harm the environment and continuing dependence on fossil fuel. Unless the target of reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 are reached, humanity faces extinction. The Philippines is not doing something substantial to implement the international agreements to address climate change.

The press has been under attack while false news proliferate in social media carried out by trolls of the government. The CBCP in a pastoral letter denounced the lies, disinformation and historical revisionism carried out by those in power and those who want to succeed Duterte especially Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.  Church leaders who came out against human rights violation (EJK) and corruption by those in power have been harassed and three priests have been killed and others hunted by the death squad.

As the elections draw near, we are at a critical juncture which will determine whether the reign of darkness will continue for the years to come or our country will finally see the light. In the midst of the crises the country is facing, the country needs leaders who are competent, compassionate, self-less capable of inspiring everyone to work together for the common good and effectively address the crises we face.

 

Political Trends

 

As his term is about to end, President Duterte’s power and influence has waned. The administration party does not have any presidential candidate. The  PDP-Laban has splintered. Other political figures and parties allied with him have gone their own way. He still has influence over  the outcome of the elections. The COMELEC is made up of his appointees – four from Davao, two  fraternity brothers and one former lawyer of Marcos Jr. His friend Dennis Uy is the owner of F2 logistics which is handling the delivery of ballots, SD cards, counting machines, etc.. He can use whatever influence he has left to ensure that the next president can protect him from accountability – especially from investigation of the International Criminal Court..

There are many who are running for president  – four of them were Duterte allies and enablers who are vying for his support. (Isko Moreno, Ping Lacson, Manny Pacquia and Marcos Jr) and one consistent opposition figure (Leni Robredo).  With  less than a month left before the elections, the presidential race is becoming a two race between  Marcos Jr and Vice-President Leni Robredo.  In this article, I would like to focus on both candidates - their character, qualities, the state of their campaign and the post-election scenarios if they win. I will also discuss a scenario that is being talked about which appear farfetched  but cannot be ruled out.

 

Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.

He is the son the former dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr. Although he claimed that he has a BA degree from Oxford University and an MA from Wharton School of business this was later proved to be false. His father was worried about his lazy and carefree attitude.  He has no track record of good governance as governor of Ilocos.  Being an absentee governor, he relied on his vice-governor to fulfil his responsibility. Ilocos Norte remains a 3rd class province.  He proudly claimed the windmills of Bangui as his project although this was actually initiated and funded by a private company.  As senator, he has no impressive record of legislation. He was one of those implicated by Napoles in the pork barrel scam and asked by COA to return P10 million pesos.

As co-administrator of Marcos’ estate, Marcos Jr. blocked government efforts to recover the billions plundered by his father.  The estate tax which was is now equivalent to P203 billion  remains unpaid. The Supreme Court had ruled the BIR assessment as final and unappealable. His mother, Imelda Marcos who is the co-administrator of the Marcos estate, was convicted by the Sandigan Bayan of seven counts of graft which is on appeal at the Supreme Court. She posted bail while facing  42 years in prison.

Even before the 2016 elections, Marcos Jr allegedly hired the political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica  to assist him. This includes rebranding the Marcos image. Through lies, deceit and disinformation using social media and trolls and funded by ill-gotten wealth he is trying to make people believe that: a: the Marcos dictatorial rule was the golden era of the country  b. the Philippines deteriorated after the ouster of his father  and  c. he will bring back the golden era with his victory. At the same time, his trolls continue to spread lies about  his principal rival Leni Robredo.

Marcos Jr was able to convince Sara Duterte to run for Vice-President which brought many of Duterte’s supporters to his side. So far, he has not received Duterte’s endorsement Duterte has publicly stated that he would not endorse Marcos Jr. He considers him a spoiled brat and a weak leader who relies on his father’s achievement, He even insinuated that Marcos Jr  is a cocaine addict.

Marcos Jr is backed by a coalition of political parties and traditional politicians most of whom had been charged and imprisoned for plunder: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Estrada, Revilla, Enrile, et al..  In spite being convicted for failure to file income tax returns, Marcos Jr. has been favored by the Comelec in the disqualification case. The case will eventually reach the Supreme Court for a final ruling.

Aside from a promise of another golden era for the Philippines, Marcos Jr has not presented a clear vision and concrete program of government should he win.  His constant message: unity is the answer to all our problems. He avoids debates  believing that he can protect his big lead based on the surveys. His supporters believe that the country will prosper when he brings back the hidden wealth (Tallano gold, Yamashita treasures), pay the country’s  debts, and distribute the gold to the people.

In spite being considered the front- runner, he has difficulty drawing large crowds in his rallies and campaigns. He has to rely on “hakot” and giving P250-500.  His campaign is focused on the poor (DE class) many of whom he believes can be bought. and those who are gullible and easily duped by lies and disinformation.   Thus, far his reliance on social media and ground campaign by barangay leaders have bore fruit with his high survey results.  However, he lacks volunteers who can carry out the ground campaign in the last months of the election.

In the most recent survey conducted by Pulse Asia, Marcos Jr remains at the top although there is a decline in his numbers. This downward trend is causing alarm to his campaign strategists and has resulted in more intense negative campaign  and dirty tactics against his closest rival. A lead in surveys months before the elections does not guarantee victory as previous elections have shown..   In 2016,  Marcos Jr. was the frontrunner in the VP election surveys but lost to Leni Robredo . It remains to be seen if he can keep the lead this time.

 

Leni Robredo

 She is the incumbent vice-president and regarded as the leader of the opposition.  She graduated from UP with an economic degree and became a lawyer while being the wife of Naga mayor (later DILG secretary) Jesse Robredo and raising two children. She worked for the Public Attorney’s Office and later for an NGO (Saligan) offering free legal services to poor clients and organizations.  After the death of her husband , she was prevailed upon by supporters to run for representative even without money. She defeated a wealthy and powerful politician who was the patriarch of the political dynasty that ruled Camarines for decades. She was elected vice-president in 2016 defeating her four male rivals in spite of having 2 percent ratings  at the start of the campaign.

In the eyes of many, she has shown integrity, compassion and servant-leadership especially during the pandemic. In spite being portrayed as elitist, she has proven her love for the poor. She has a clear strategic vision and concrete platform to address the crises the country is facing. She is inclusive and consultative. She is backed by a movement that emerged spontaneously made up of various opposition groups, classes and sectors including clergy, religious and laity. A bulk of her support come from the middle-class, the youth, and urban poor organizations, peasants, labor, etc. She also has the broad support of groups regarded  as rightist (Magdalo), left of center (Akbayan) and the left (Makabayan bloc). She is endorsed by various universities, civic groups, the business sector. This so-called Pink Movement is capable of coordinated nationwide mobilization. They are conducting a highly-organized people’s campaign with energetic supporters/volunteers who are engaged in social media and ground campaign (barrio to barrio, house to house, face to face). They are self-financed or crowd-sourcing which make up for her lack of funds. She represents the new style of politics different from the traditional patronage politics. There are massive attendance in  rallies held all over the country even in areas considered as  bailiwicks of  Marcos Jr-Sara Duterte tandem  (Northern Luzon, Mindanao, NCR). In these rallies there is consistent message of good governance that can bring progress and hope for the future. Besides being projected as the leader that can bring light amidst the darkness and inspire others to do the same, two other archetypal figures are emerging: the loving mother and the warrior woman – Urduja. To most, she is just simply Leni – approachable, full of charm and charisma, competent and indefatigable.

With the momentum of her campaign, a bandwagon effect has started. Politicians allied with Duterte  and his daughter Sara are supporting her – Escudero,  Salceda, Andaya, Rufus Rodriguez, Evardone, et al – and are promoting a Robredo-Sara Tandem (RoSa, KaLeSa). She also received the support of the Lakas-CMD chair Jose de Venecia and his son who is deputy majority leader in the House of Representative allied with Duterte, Even Partido Reporma of Pantaleon Alvarez, former ally of Duterte who earlier backed Lacson has declared support for Robredo.  The volunteer groups of Isko Moreno – Ikaw Muna Pilipinas - have  also shifted their support to her. Many governors and mayors are supporting her -  even those competing locally for the same position.  These defections to her side continue especially since the start of the campaign for local elections.

In the poll surveys, Robredo has climbed to the second place overtaking Moreno, Pacquiao and Lacson.  There is a significant upward trajectory and surge in her numbers. This could be due to the massive crowds in the rallies and the house to house campaign of her army of volunteers.  It looks like the spirit of people power has started to manifest in these campaign in spite the harassment and red-tagging. Unlike the surveys, the social media analytics (Google Trends, Facebook Analytics, etc.)  which analyze searches and social media engagements are showing that as of March, Robredo leads in most regions. Still, there are many who doubt if she can overtake Marcos Jr whose lead in the surveys remain wide. Many think that it would take a miracle for her to win.

 

Post-Election Scenarios

 

 Robredo Presidency

Her “miraculous” victory is met with euphoria and rejoicing among the majority of the Filipinos. She reaches out to the supporters of other candidates. Although feeling cheated, there is no strong reaction from supporters of Marcos Jr who files a series of election protests and demand a recount.

She appoints people of competence and integrity in the cabinet and other government positions, she mobilizes the Pink Movement and Civil Society to assist in carrying out her program of government. She focuses on addressing the pandemic crisis like what she had been doing as vice-president but this time in a grander scale – stopping the spread of the epidemic, assistance to those most affected, etc. Appropriate policies and systems that address the pandemic, economic and ecological crises are implemented, Good governance with grassroots participation becomes the norm.

The rule of law is upheld. Those responsible for plunder and murder are held accountable. The DOJ initiates investigation on abuses and crimes committed during the previous administration. The government cooperates with the International Criminal Court in the investigation of the Extrajudicial Killings. System of transparency is put in place to prevent corruption. The peace process with the NDF is resumed and a final peace agreement is reached that addresses the roots of armed conflict. Since she was elected with the support of Church people there is close Church and state collaboration for the common good.

She faces the problem of lack of support from the Senate and House of Representatives if few of her allies win . She has difficulty in passing legislative agenda for reforms and good governance. She also has difficulty with local governments units dominated by traditional politicians and political dynasties. The Pink Movement can bear pressure on local government officials and promote good governance at the local and grassroots level. New leaders of the same mold as Robredo emerge and are supported that will challenge the traditional political elite and dynasties.

 

 

 

Marcos Jr Presidency (Two probable scenarios )

Scenario A

The elections turn out to be credible, fair and honest. The losing candidates concede but Marcos Jr does not get the full support and respect because of a general feeling that his victory was achieved through lies and disinformation funded by his family’s ill-gotten wealth.  For the next six years, the efforts of Marcos Jr. focus on the following:

·         the restoration of his family honor and dynasty, stop all efforts to recover ill-gotten wealth and payment of estate tax, protection of Imelda from serving her sentence for graft.

·         the continuation of the policies and style of governance of the Duterte administration characterized by incompetence, corruption, violence and impunity.

 

He pursues the War on Drugs and the Pro-China policy as well as total war against the revolutionary movement.  He appoints his vice-president Sara as Defense Secretary to help carry this out. The death squads are allowed to continue to operate with impunity targeting not just drug users but also those who have been red-tagged. The ICC investigation continues and includes Sara who was mayor of Davao when the Davao Death Squads were active.

While uniting the traditional corrupt political elite, Marcos Jr is unable to unite the nation behind him. Lacking in leadership experience and competence, he is incapable of addressing the pandemic, economic and ecological crises effectively.  Being contented with the honor and glory of being the president he remains carefree and lazy and continue to practice an absentee and laissez-faire style of leadership. He depends on others to do the hard and dirty work and relies on the advise of his wife Liza thus, earning the title of  conjugal rule. He is unable to do away with corruption in government. He does not have the trust, confidence and respect of many Filipinos,  He is unable to go to the US for fear of being arrested.

 Crony-capitalism becomes rampant and  he is unable to attract foreign investments due to lack of investors’ confidence. The economy deteriorates and he is not able to fulfil his promise of bringing back the golden era of   the Philippines. There is no Tallano gold and those who voted for him and the majority of Filipinos remain impoverished and feel scammed once again.

Leni Robredo does not disappear from the scene. She continues to serve in her own capacity even without government position. She provides leadership to the opposition and the Pink Movement that shifts to peaceful, nonviolent resistance.  Every self-serving decision of the Marcos Jr administration is challenged and resisted.  His non-payment of P203 B estate taxes as well as non-implementation of the Sandigan Bayan conviction of Imelda for plunder is raised.  There is a threat to nonpayment of taxes. There is demand for accountability including investigation of corruption and extrajudicial killings.

As the economic crisis deepens, the people have to fend for themselves. Civil Society groups, the members of the Pink Movement and Churches respond by sharing  their resources, time and expertise to deal with the bleak situation.  They promote a sharing and collaborative economy. Instead of relying on the government, they come up with concrete socio-economic programs and projects that address hunger and unemployment, alleviate poverty, and address climate change.  They promote renewable energy, circular economy, sustainable and regenerative agriculture. They implement the agenda and platform of the Pink Revolution even if outside the government. They make use of the digital information and communication technology and help the country to adapt to the emerging new industrial economic revolution.  They exert effort to change Philippine society from below.

As Marcos Jr resorts to authoritarian style of governance copying his father’s and predecessor’s playbook, resistance increases. The political and economic situation deteriorates  There is heightened social unrest, division and tension. The NDF-CPP-NPA become stronger as many – especially the youth- who are disillusioned with the situation and the political-economic system join the armed revolutionary movement fighting for radical change. Peace remains elusive as resistance to his rule grows. There is no peace negotiations as the government and the revolutionary movement adopt  a hardline stance. There is constant effort to oust him. The Church exercises a prophetic/critical role judging the Marcos administration as built on lies, deceit and corruption, having no moral basis to govern. A segment within the military is restive and does not support the repressive rule and pro-China and anti-US policy. The question: will he be able to finish his term or will history repeat itself? Will there be a peaceful transfer of power or a long dark bloody night?

 

Scenario  B

Due to unchecked disinformation campaign, vote-buying and rigging of election by the administration aided by COMELEC, Robredo and other candidates do not concede. The result is unacceptable to the millions of people who want change and pinned their hopes on Robredo presidency. This triggers sustained vigorous protest and civil disobedience spearheaded by the Pink Movement waging active nonviolent struggle with Robredo providing leadership. This spreads nationwide with the support of the Church.

The situation becomes volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. Duterte declares a state of emergency until Marcos Jr is sworn into office. This leads to greater reaction. An insurrectionary mood prevails. Duterte orders a crackdown. NPA operations increase.  Due to civil disobedience the entire country is paralyzed. A segment of the military refuses to carry out repressive measures against the people. This can either be quickly resolved through People Power like 1986 – with history repeating itself - or to a long dark night of authoritarian rule and determined struggle to oust the ruling regime and usher in a new political-economic system. Whether there is a peaceful transfer of power or a bloody one remains to be seen.

 

Sara Duterte Presidency

(These two scenarios, although seemingly farfetched and dismissed as conspiracy theory, cannot be ruled out. Questions have been raised why the COMELEC failed to come out with a timely decision on the disqualification case against Marcos which could prevent the Supreme Court from coming up with a final ruling before the elections. Duterte’s allies are also making sure that Sara wins as vice-president by promoting a ROSA (Robredo-Sara) tandem. This has brought suspicion that this is part of a complex maneuver by Duterte to ensure his hold on power by proxy and defend him from the ICC investigation. There are two scenarios: a, Marcos Jr victory, b. Robredo Victory).

Scenario  A: Marcos Jr  is declared winner by the COMELEC. Sara Duterte  is also declared winner as Vice-President.  Before or after being sworn in, the Supreme Court decides to disqualify Marcos Jr.. Sara is proclaimed as the new president.

Scenario  B: Robredo wins the presidency with Sara as vice-president. Robredo has no support in the Senate & House of Representatives   dominated by Duterte  allies. They maneuver to impeach and oust Robredo.  Sara becomes president assuring the continuity of Duterte  hold on power.

Whether scenario A or B, both trigger widespread  protest and civil disobedience spearheaded by the Pink Movement waging active nonviolent struggle. This spread nationwide with the support of the Church. The situation becomes volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. This leads to greater reaction. An insurrectionary mood prevails.  NPA operations increase. Due to civil disobedience the entire country is paralyzed. This can either be quickly resolved through People Power like 1986 or to a long dark night of authoritarian rule and determined struggle to oust the ruling regime.

 

Final Thoughts

The future is unpredictable. We find ourselves in an uncertain, complex, ambiguous situation. Nothing is certain. We will be surprised how things will turn out. This is how many felt at the beginning of 1986 before the Snap Election  that Marcos Sr called confident of his victory. What happened in EDSA in Feb 22-25,1986 was totally unexpected. It was not in any of the scenarios. It seemed miraculous.

But already we are seeing a glimpse of what can happen no matter what the outcome of the election may be. What we are seeing so far is the emergence of a new kind of politics that gives hope for the future – beyond May 9. A substantial number of ordinary citizens from all walks of life, most of them young people, fed up with the traditional style of politics, who are actively involved in the fight for good governance. They are people full of hope, with integrity, decency, kindness, compassion, self-discipline, creativity and joy. They represent the best version of the Filipino.

They look for and support servant-leaders who can inspire them to share their time, talent and resources to work for a better Philippines. They are developing a sense of solidarity, communion and what sociologist Victor Turner calls “communitas”. We can already see and experience this in the massive rallies. They are organic and self-organizing making use of the digital information and communication technology to connect to each other, fight false news and disinformation, and go out into the streets, and far-flung communities voluntarily to make a difference. The spirit of EDSA People Power is once again here and will not easily go away.This is the face of transformative politics that will replace the traditional transactional-patronage  politics dominated by corrupt and self-serving political elites and dynasties. Assuming that this is not just a temporary phenomenon but a genuine social movement,  the struggle – the Pink Revolution – will not end on May 9 –whether with a victory of Robredo or Marcos Jr or a Daughterte presidency.  

Under a Robredo presidency, their active support and participation   can be relied on so that there will be genuine transformation and good governance. From among them will emerge new breed of servant-leaders chosen and supported by an awakened citizenry that cannot be bought and dominated by traditional politicians. They can change the prevailing political culture. 

Under a Marcos presidency, the Pink Movement will resist the continuation of the corrupt and authoritarian style of governance and any efforts of impunity, human rights violation, etc.  They are capable of carrying out massive protest and even another people power uprising when necessary. The struggle for good governance and genuine social transformation continues. This time it will come from below rather than from the top. This is the new paradigm of social change.

According to Italian sociologist Vilfredo Pareto, based on his studies of institutions and groups, it only takes at least 20 percent to make a difference. Arnold Toynbee in his study of the history of civilizations and nations also wrote about the role of “creative minorities” in initiating social change. Whether the number of those in the Pink Movement is enough to win this coming election remains to be seen. What is certain is that in the long run, this is enough to effect genuine social transformation.  This is the source of hope, the light in the midst of darkness.