Presidential Race: Trends and Post-Election Scenarios
Fr.
Amado L. Picardal, CSsR
For
the last six years, the Philippines has gone through a dark period under a
despotic regime comparable to the Marcos era. Duterte’s War on Drugs has
claimed the lives of over 34,000 Filipinos – mostly poor people accused of
being drug users, human rights defenders and members of militant groups tagged
as communists. He is now facing investigation by the Prosecutor’s Office of the International Criminal
Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity. The spiral of violence continues since
the breakdown of the peace negotiations between the government and the National
Democratic Front. Lumad communities have been subjected to militarization and
their schools shut down.
Over
3.68 million have been infected by COVID19 and over 59,000 have died. The
government failed to effectively address the pandemic crisis in spite the huge
Bayanihan budget due to incompetence and corruption which involve the president
and his friends as the finding of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee reported. So
far 60 percent has been fully vaccinated and the case infections and mortality
rate has gone down. Restrictions have eased although one cannot really be
certain that the pandemic crisis is over. There are rising cases in other
countries especially like China. Another wave with new variants cannot be ruled
out.
The
pandemic has affected the economy severely with more Filipinos becoming poorer
due to the militaristic approach, long community quarantine, unemployment and
bankruptcy. From P6.1 trillion six years ago, the Government’s debt has reached
P12 trillion. The Philippines faces great difficulty in coming out from the
economic crisis and adapting to the rapidly changing global economic system
based on the emergence of a new industrial revolution based on renewable energy
and the digital information and communication technology. The Russian invasion in Ukraine which
threatens to involve the NATO and escalate into a wider war has triggered an
economic crisis related to the energy crisis as well as food crisis considering
that Ukraine and Russia are the main sources of gas, oil, grains and
fertilizers. The global economy will continue to face recession in the years to
come. The ecological crisis is not being seriously addressed as the government
continues policies that harm the environment and continuing dependence on
fossil fuel. Unless the target of reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 and carbon
neutrality by 2050 are reached, humanity faces extinction. The Philippines is
not doing something substantial to implement the international agreements to
address climate change.
The
press has been under attack while false news proliferate in social media
carried out by trolls of the government. The CBCP in a pastoral letter
denounced the lies, disinformation and historical revisionism carried out by
those in power and those who want to succeed Duterte especially Ferdinand
Marcos, Jr. Church leaders who came out
against human rights violation (EJK) and corruption by those in power have been
harassed and three priests have been killed and others hunted by the death
squad.
As
the elections draw near, we are at a critical juncture which will determine
whether the reign of darkness will continue for the years to come or our
country will finally see the light. In the midst of the crises the country is
facing, the country needs leaders who are competent, compassionate, self-less
capable of inspiring everyone to work together for the common good and
effectively address the crises we face.
Political Trends
As
his term is about to end, President Duterte’s power and influence has waned.
The administration party does not have any presidential candidate. The PDP-Laban has splintered. Other political
figures and parties allied with him have gone their own way. He still has
influence over the outcome of the
elections. The COMELEC is made up of his appointees – four from Davao, two fraternity brothers and one former lawyer of
Marcos Jr. His friend Dennis Uy is the owner of F2 logistics which is handling
the delivery of ballots, SD cards, counting machines, etc.. He can use whatever
influence he has left to ensure that the next president can protect him from
accountability – especially from investigation of the International Criminal
Court..
There
are many who are running for president –
four of them were Duterte allies and enablers who are vying for his support.
(Isko Moreno, Ping Lacson, Manny Pacquia and Marcos Jr) and one consistent
opposition figure (Leni Robredo). With less than a month left before the elections,
the presidential race is becoming a two race between Marcos Jr and Vice-President Leni
Robredo. In this article, I would like
to focus on both candidates - their character, qualities, the state of their
campaign and the post-election scenarios if they win. I will also discuss a
scenario that is being talked about which appear farfetched but cannot be ruled out.
Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.
He
is the son the former dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr. Although he claimed that he
has a BA degree from Oxford University and an MA from Wharton School of business
this was later proved to be false. His father was worried about his lazy and
carefree attitude. He has no track
record of good governance as governor of Ilocos. Being an absentee governor, he relied on his
vice-governor to fulfil his responsibility. Ilocos Norte remains a 3rd
class province. He proudly claimed the
windmills of Bangui as his project although this was actually initiated and
funded by a private company. As senator,
he has no impressive record of legislation. He was one of those implicated by
Napoles in the pork barrel scam and asked by COA to return P10 million pesos.
As
co-administrator of Marcos’ estate, Marcos Jr. blocked government efforts to
recover the billions plundered by his father.
The estate tax which was is now equivalent to P203 billion remains unpaid. The Supreme Court had ruled
the BIR assessment as final and unappealable. His mother, Imelda Marcos who is
the co-administrator of the Marcos estate, was convicted by the Sandigan Bayan
of seven counts of graft which is on appeal at the Supreme Court. She posted
bail while facing 42 years in prison.
Even
before the 2016 elections, Marcos Jr allegedly hired the political consulting
firm Cambridge Analytica to assist him. This
includes rebranding the Marcos image. Through lies, deceit and disinformation
using social media and trolls and funded by ill-gotten wealth he is trying to make
people believe that: a: the Marcos dictatorial rule was the golden era of the
country b. the Philippines deteriorated
after the ouster of his father and c. he will bring back the golden era with his
victory. At the same time, his trolls continue to spread lies about his principal rival Leni Robredo.
Marcos
Jr was able to convince Sara Duterte to run for Vice-President which brought many
of Duterte’s supporters to his side. So far, he has not received Duterte’s
endorsement Duterte has publicly stated that he would not endorse Marcos Jr. He
considers him a spoiled brat and a weak leader who relies on his father’s
achievement, He even insinuated that Marcos Jr
is a cocaine addict.
Marcos
Jr is backed by a coalition of political parties and traditional politicians
most of whom had been charged and imprisoned for plunder: Gloria Macapagal
Arroyo, Estrada, Revilla, Enrile, et al.. In spite being convicted for failure to file
income tax returns, Marcos Jr. has been favored by the Comelec in the
disqualification case. The case will eventually reach the Supreme Court for a
final ruling.
Aside
from a promise of another golden era for the Philippines, Marcos Jr has not
presented a clear vision and concrete program of government should he win. His constant message: unity is the answer to
all our problems. He avoids debates
believing that he can protect his big lead based on the surveys. His
supporters believe that the country will prosper when he brings back the hidden
wealth (Tallano gold, Yamashita treasures), pay the country’s debts, and distribute the gold to the people.
In
spite being considered the front- runner, he has difficulty drawing large
crowds in his rallies and campaigns. He has to rely on “hakot” and giving
P250-500. His campaign is focused on the
poor (DE class) many of whom he believes can be bought. and those who are
gullible and easily duped by lies and disinformation. Thus, far his reliance on social media and ground
campaign by barangay leaders have bore fruit with his high survey results. However, he lacks volunteers who can carry out
the ground campaign in the last months of the election.
In
the most recent survey conducted by Pulse Asia, Marcos Jr remains at the top
although there is a decline in his numbers. This downward trend is causing
alarm to his campaign strategists and has resulted in more intense negative
campaign and dirty tactics against his
closest rival. A lead in surveys months before the elections does not guarantee
victory as previous elections have shown.. In 2016, Marcos Jr. was the frontrunner in the VP
election surveys but lost to Leni Robredo . It remains to be seen if he can
keep the lead this time.
Leni Robredo
She is the incumbent vice-president and
regarded as the leader of the opposition. She graduated from UP with an economic degree
and became a lawyer while being the wife of Naga mayor (later DILG secretary) Jesse
Robredo and raising two children. She worked for the Public Attorney’s Office
and later for an NGO (Saligan) offering free legal services to poor clients and
organizations. After the death of her
husband , she was prevailed upon by supporters to run for representative even
without money. She defeated a wealthy and powerful politician who was the
patriarch of the political dynasty that ruled Camarines for decades. She was
elected vice-president in 2016 defeating her four male rivals in spite of
having 2 percent ratings at the start of
the campaign.
In
the eyes of many, she has shown integrity, compassion and servant-leadership
especially during the pandemic. In spite being portrayed as elitist, she has proven
her love for the poor. She has a clear strategic vision and concrete platform
to address the crises the country is facing. She is inclusive and consultative.
She is backed by a movement that emerged spontaneously made up of various
opposition groups, classes and sectors including clergy, religious and laity. A
bulk of her support come from the middle-class, the youth, and urban poor
organizations, peasants, labor, etc. She also has the broad support of groups regarded
as rightist (Magdalo), left of center
(Akbayan) and the left (Makabayan bloc). She is endorsed by various universities,
civic groups, the business sector. This so-called Pink Movement is capable of
coordinated nationwide mobilization. They are conducting a highly-organized
people’s campaign with energetic supporters/volunteers who are engaged in
social media and ground campaign (barrio to barrio, house to house, face to
face). They are self-financed or crowd-sourcing which make up for her lack of
funds. She represents the new style of politics different from the traditional
patronage politics. There are massive attendance in rallies held all over the country even in
areas considered as bailiwicks of Marcos Jr-Sara Duterte tandem (Northern Luzon, Mindanao, NCR). In these
rallies there is consistent message of good governance that can bring progress
and hope for the future. Besides being projected as the leader that can bring
light amidst the darkness and inspire others to do the same, two other
archetypal figures are emerging: the loving mother and the warrior woman –
Urduja. To most, she is just simply Leni – approachable, full of charm and
charisma, competent and indefatigable.
With
the momentum of her campaign, a bandwagon effect has started. Politicians
allied with Duterte and his daughter Sara
are supporting her – Escudero, Salceda,
Andaya, Rufus Rodriguez, Evardone, et al – and are promoting a Robredo-Sara
Tandem (RoSa, KaLeSa). She also received the support of the Lakas-CMD chair
Jose de Venecia and his son who is deputy majority leader in the House of
Representative allied with Duterte, Even Partido Reporma of Pantaleon Alvarez,
former ally of Duterte who earlier backed Lacson has declared support for
Robredo. The volunteer groups of Isko
Moreno – Ikaw Muna Pilipinas - have also
shifted their support to her. Many governors and mayors are supporting her - even those competing locally for the same
position. These defections to her side
continue especially since the start of the campaign for local elections.
In
the poll surveys, Robredo has climbed to the second place overtaking Moreno,
Pacquiao and Lacson. There is a
significant upward trajectory and surge in her numbers. This could be due to the
massive crowds in the rallies and the house to house campaign of her army of
volunteers. It looks like the spirit of
people power has started to manifest in these campaign in spite the harassment
and red-tagging. Unlike the surveys, the social media analytics (Google Trends,
Facebook Analytics, etc.) which analyze searches
and social media engagements are showing that as of March, Robredo leads in
most regions. Still, there are many who doubt if she can overtake Marcos Jr
whose lead in the surveys remain wide. Many think that it would take a miracle
for her to win.
Post-Election Scenarios
Robredo Presidency
Her
“miraculous” victory is met with euphoria and rejoicing among the majority of
the Filipinos. She reaches out to the supporters of other candidates. Although
feeling cheated, there is no strong reaction from supporters of Marcos Jr who
files a series of election protests and demand a recount.
She
appoints people of competence and integrity in the cabinet and other government
positions, she mobilizes the Pink Movement and Civil Society to assist in carrying
out her program of government. She focuses on addressing the pandemic crisis
like what she had been doing as vice-president but this time in a grander scale
– stopping the spread of the epidemic, assistance to those most affected, etc. Appropriate
policies and systems that address the pandemic, economic and ecological crises
are implemented, Good governance with grassroots participation becomes the norm.
The
rule of law is upheld. Those responsible for plunder and murder are held
accountable. The DOJ initiates investigation on abuses and crimes committed
during the previous administration. The government cooperates with the
International Criminal Court in the investigation of the Extrajudicial
Killings. System of transparency is put in place to prevent corruption. The peace
process with the NDF is resumed and a final peace agreement is reached that
addresses the roots of armed conflict. Since she was elected with the support
of Church people there is close Church and state collaboration for the common
good.
She
faces the problem of lack of support from the Senate and House of
Representatives if few of her allies win . She has difficulty in passing
legislative agenda for reforms and good governance. She also has difficulty
with local governments units dominated by traditional politicians and political
dynasties. The Pink Movement can bear pressure on local government officials
and promote good governance at the local and grassroots level. New leaders of
the same mold as Robredo emerge and are supported that will challenge the
traditional political elite and dynasties.
Marcos Jr Presidency (Two
probable scenarios )
Scenario A
The
elections turn out to be credible, fair and honest. The losing candidates
concede but Marcos Jr does not get the full support and respect because of a
general feeling that his victory was achieved through lies and disinformation
funded by his family’s ill-gotten wealth. For the next six years, the efforts of Marcos
Jr. focus on the following:
·
the restoration of his family honor and dynasty,
stop all efforts to recover ill-gotten wealth and payment of estate tax,
protection of Imelda from serving her sentence for graft.
·
the continuation of the policies and style
of governance of the Duterte administration characterized by incompetence,
corruption, violence and impunity.
He
pursues the War on Drugs and the Pro-China policy as well as total war against
the revolutionary movement. He appoints his
vice-president Sara as Defense Secretary to help carry this out. The death
squads are allowed to continue to operate with impunity targeting not just drug
users but also those who have been red-tagged. The ICC investigation continues
and includes Sara who was mayor of Davao when the Davao Death Squads were
active.
While
uniting the traditional corrupt political elite, Marcos Jr is unable to unite
the nation behind him. Lacking in leadership experience and competence, he is
incapable of addressing the pandemic, economic and ecological crises
effectively. Being contented with the
honor and glory of being the president he remains carefree and lazy and
continue to practice an absentee and laissez-faire style of leadership. He depends
on others to do the hard and dirty work and relies on the advise of his wife
Liza thus, earning the title of conjugal
rule. He is unable to do away with corruption in government. He does not have
the trust, confidence and respect of many Filipinos, He is unable to go to the US for fear of
being arrested.
Crony-capitalism becomes rampant and he is unable to attract foreign investments
due to lack of investors’ confidence. The economy deteriorates and he is not
able to fulfil his promise of bringing back the golden era of the Philippines. There is no Tallano gold
and those who voted for him and the majority of Filipinos remain impoverished
and feel scammed once again.
Leni
Robredo does not disappear from the scene. She continues to serve in her own
capacity even without government position. She provides leadership to the
opposition and the Pink Movement that shifts to peaceful, nonviolent
resistance. Every self-serving decision of
the Marcos Jr administration is challenged and resisted. His non-payment of P203 B estate taxes as
well as non-implementation of the Sandigan Bayan conviction of Imelda for
plunder is raised. There is a threat to nonpayment
of taxes. There is demand for accountability including investigation of
corruption and extrajudicial killings.
As
the economic crisis deepens, the people have to fend for themselves. Civil
Society groups, the members of the Pink Movement and Churches respond by
sharing their resources, time and
expertise to deal with the bleak situation.
They promote a sharing and collaborative economy. Instead of relying on
the government, they come up with concrete socio-economic programs and projects
that address hunger and unemployment, alleviate poverty, and address climate
change. They promote renewable energy,
circular economy, sustainable and regenerative agriculture. They implement the
agenda and platform of the Pink Revolution even if outside the government. They
make use of the digital information and communication technology and help the
country to adapt to the emerging new industrial economic revolution. They exert effort to change Philippine
society from below.
As
Marcos Jr resorts to authoritarian style of governance copying his father’s and
predecessor’s playbook, resistance increases. The political and economic situation
deteriorates There is heightened social
unrest, division and tension. The NDF-CPP-NPA become stronger as many –
especially the youth- who are disillusioned with the situation and the
political-economic system join the armed revolutionary movement fighting for
radical change. Peace remains elusive as resistance to his rule grows. There is
no peace negotiations as the government and the revolutionary movement
adopt a hardline stance. There is
constant effort to oust him. The Church exercises a prophetic/critical role
judging the Marcos administration as built on lies, deceit and corruption,
having no moral basis to govern. A segment within the military is restive and
does not support the repressive rule and pro-China and anti-US policy. The
question: will he be able to finish his term or will history repeat itself?
Will there be a peaceful transfer of power or a long dark bloody night?
Scenario B
Due
to unchecked disinformation campaign, vote-buying and rigging of election by
the administration aided by COMELEC, Robredo and other candidates do not
concede. The result is unacceptable to the millions of people who want change
and pinned their hopes on Robredo presidency. This triggers sustained vigorous
protest and civil disobedience spearheaded by the Pink Movement waging active
nonviolent struggle with Robredo providing leadership. This spreads nationwide
with the support of the Church.
The
situation becomes volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. Duterte declares
a state of emergency until Marcos Jr is sworn into office. This leads to
greater reaction. An insurrectionary mood prevails. Duterte orders a crackdown.
NPA operations increase. Due to civil
disobedience the entire country is paralyzed. A segment of the military refuses
to carry out repressive measures against the people. This can either be quickly
resolved through People Power like 1986 – with history repeating itself - or to
a long dark night of authoritarian rule and determined struggle to oust the
ruling regime and usher in a new political-economic system. Whether there is a
peaceful transfer of power or a bloody one remains to be seen.
Sara Duterte Presidency
(These
two scenarios, although seemingly farfetched and dismissed as conspiracy
theory, cannot be ruled out. Questions have been raised why the COMELEC failed
to come out with a timely decision on the disqualification case against Marcos which
could prevent the Supreme Court from coming up with a final ruling before the
elections. Duterte’s allies are also making sure that Sara wins as
vice-president by promoting a ROSA (Robredo-Sara) tandem. This has brought
suspicion that this is part of a complex maneuver by Duterte to ensure his hold
on power by proxy and defend him from the ICC investigation. There are two scenarios:
a, Marcos Jr victory, b. Robredo Victory).
Scenario
A: Marcos Jr is declared winner by the COMELEC. Sara Duterte
is also declared winner as Vice-President. Before or after being sworn in, the Supreme Court
decides to disqualify Marcos Jr.. Sara is proclaimed as the new president.
Scenario B: Robredo wins the
presidency with Sara as vice-president. Robredo has no support in the Senate
& House of Representatives dominated by Duterte allies. They maneuver to impeach and oust
Robredo. Sara becomes president assuring
the continuity of Duterte hold on power.
Whether
scenario A or B, both trigger widespread protest and civil disobedience spearheaded by
the Pink Movement waging active nonviolent struggle. This spread nationwide
with the support of the Church. The situation becomes volatile, uncertain,
complex and ambiguous. This leads to greater reaction. An insurrectionary mood
prevails. NPA operations increase. Due
to civil disobedience the entire country is paralyzed. This can either be
quickly resolved through People Power like 1986 or to a long dark night of authoritarian
rule and determined struggle to oust the ruling regime.
Final Thoughts
The
future is unpredictable. We find ourselves in an uncertain, complex, ambiguous
situation. Nothing is certain. We will be surprised how things will turn out.
This is how many felt at the beginning of 1986 before the Snap Election that Marcos Sr called confident of his
victory. What happened in EDSA in Feb 22-25,1986 was totally unexpected. It was
not in any of the scenarios. It seemed miraculous.
But
already we are seeing a glimpse of what can happen no matter what the outcome
of the election may be. What we are seeing so far is the emergence of a new
kind of politics that gives hope for the future – beyond May 9. A substantial
number of ordinary citizens from all walks of life, most of them young people,
fed up with the traditional style of politics, who are actively involved in the
fight for good governance. They are people full of hope, with integrity,
decency, kindness, compassion, self-discipline, creativity and joy. They
represent the best version of the Filipino.
They
look for and support servant-leaders who can inspire them to share their time,
talent and resources to work for a better Philippines. They are developing a
sense of solidarity, communion and what sociologist Victor Turner calls
“communitas”. We can already see and experience this in the massive rallies.
They are organic and self-organizing making use of the digital information and
communication technology to connect to each other, fight false news and
disinformation, and go out into the streets, and far-flung communities
voluntarily to make a difference. The spirit of EDSA People Power is once again
here and will not easily go away.This is the face of transformative politics
that will replace the traditional transactional-patronage politics dominated by corrupt and
self-serving political elites and dynasties. Assuming that this is not just a
temporary phenomenon but a genuine social movement, the struggle – the Pink Revolution – will not
end on May 9 –whether with a victory of Robredo or Marcos Jr or a Daughterte presidency.
Under
a Robredo presidency, their active support and participation can be relied on so that there will be
genuine transformation and good governance. From among them will emerge new
breed of servant-leaders chosen and supported by an awakened citizenry that
cannot be bought and dominated by traditional politicians. They can change the
prevailing political culture.
Under a Marcos
presidency, the Pink Movement will resist the continuation of the corrupt and
authoritarian style of governance and any efforts of impunity, human rights violation,
etc. They are capable of carrying out
massive protest and even another people power uprising when necessary. The
struggle for good governance and genuine social transformation continues. This
time it will come from below rather than from the top. This is the new paradigm
of social change.
According
to Italian sociologist Vilfredo Pareto, based on his studies of institutions
and groups, it only takes at least 20 percent to make a difference. Arnold
Toynbee in his study of the history of civilizations and nations also wrote
about the role of “creative minorities” in initiating social change. Whether
the number of those in the Pink Movement is enough to win this coming election
remains to be seen. What is certain is that in the long run, this is enough to
effect genuine social transformation. This
is the source of hope, the light in the midst of darkness.
