As elections draw near, the
possibility of Rodrigo Duterte becoming president has become imminent barring
last minute extraordinary developments or “miraculous events” that would derail
his candidacy – the latest of which is the allegation of hidden wealth.
If the
surveys are to be believed, and his supporters refuse to believe all the
allegations against him, he is assured of getting at least 33% of the votes.
The
question now is what could happen when he becomes president. Will he be able to
carry out what he promised and intends to do?
Will he be able to fulfill the expectations of his followers?
This is an
attempt at presenting a scenario analysis based on what Duterte promised to do
as reported in the media and the possible
consequences should he carry these out.
What Duterte Promised and
Intends to Do
What attracted many voters to
Duterte is the promise of change. “Pagbabago, Disiplina.” This has been his battle-cry.
This is reminiscent of Marcos’ battle-cry when he declared Martial Law and
promised to create a New Society (Bagong Lipunan) with discipline as one of the
pre-requisites (“sa ikauunlad ng bayan, disiplina ang kailangan”). To many his
of followers, Duterte is the last hope of the country, the only one who can
save the country -- the Messiah.
At the core
of his agenda is to stamp out criminality and corruption by all means
necessary. This include extrajudicial killings, ignoring the rule of law and
basic human rights of suspects which he regard as a Western concept. As Mayor
of Davao, he was accused of inspiring and supporting the Davao Death Squad
which has murdered 1,424 victims from 1998-2015. This earned him the name of
“the Punisher.” He boasted that if elected, it will be bloody – the 1,000 will
become 100,000. He said that the fish in Manila bay will grow fat. There won’t
be any need to build prisons, just more funeral parlors. This would imply multiplying and unleashing
the death squads nation-wide. The targets are mainly suspected criminals. But
in a speech to the Kilusang Mayo Uno (KMU), he warned them not to strike during
his term of office – otherwise he will also kill them.
In carrying
this out, he will not brook any opposition. He warned congress, the Commission
on Human Rights, and the Ombudsman not to resist this campaign. Otherwise, he
will close down or abolish congress if it starts impeachment proceedings
against him.
In his latest speech in April 28,
2016 during the release of the military man held prisoner by the NPA, Duterte
reiterated the following:
Since the
present setup and constitution is not enough to effect change, he will abolish
congress and the constitution and form a revolutionary government. He will
start a revolution from within – (similar to Marcos’ idea of a revolution from
the center).
He will
declare a ceasefire with the NPA and resume the peace process and quickly reach
a peace agreement.
Earlier he
had expressed his desire to enter into a coalition government with the
communists. He promised to give them cabinet positions. In a speech he told the
NPA, that if he becomes president, the NPA will have one foot in Malacanang. He
declared that he will be the first leftist president of the Philippines. While
denying that he is a communist, he
affirmed that he is a socialist. Based
on his pronouncements, the form of government that Duterte will try to adopt
can be labeled as autocratic-socialist in coalition with the communists and
moving towards a parliamentary-federal form of government. Marcos way of
governing is Duterte’ model. Duterte promised to give Marcos a hero’s burial.
The only difference between Duterte and Marcos is that Marcos was not a leftist
and the communists were the targets of repression and extrajudicial killings.
Under a Duterte government, the communists will be partners and they can help
in eliminating suspected criminals. After all, the first batch of the Davao
Death Squads were composed of former communists/Sparrow units hit-men.
In various interviews, especially
with Vice Ganda, Duterte declared his support for gay marriage and divorce. So
these would be some of the changes that he would introduce especially with a
new constitution. With a new constitution, term limits can be abolished. So he
can reign for as long as he wishes.
Worst-Case Scenarios
Many things can happen under a
Duterte Presidency. What I will present is the worst-case scenario if he
carries through what he promised and intended to do. I hope this will not
happen. None of this will happen if he just sits back, relax and bask in his
power and glory and does very little to change society or if he plays his cards
very well.
After his
inauguration, President Duterte is expected to immediately launch his
anti-criminality drive. He has given himself 3-6 months to stamp out
criminality or he will resign. If he follows the rule of law and due process
six years is not enough to do this. The PNP will have to engage in intelligence
gathering or search their data base. They will then have to do case build up,
find evidence, and file the case in court. Since the judicial system is very
weak the cases will drag in court for many years.
So
shortcuts have to be made, like what happened in Davao. This means organizing and
multiplying the death squads all over the country– franchise style. Training
will be rapidly conducted while barangay units are required submit the names of
the notorious drug users, pushers, petty thieves, etc. There will be police
officers who will handle the death squads. Other police officers will be
emboldened to carry out extrajudicial killings on their own as they are
encourage to take the law into their hands with impunity. This will require a
huge budget which can be taken from the intelligence fund. If a peace agreement
is immediately reached with the CPP, he may request the NPA to also form their own death squads to go
after the suspected criminals.
The bodies will pile up unless the
death squads concentrate on a few high-profile targets or the big criminals (crime bosses, drug
lords). It is easier to eliminate the juvenile delinquents and the small fries.
Fighting against drug lords will be more difficult especially through
extrajudicial killings. To protect themselves, these criminal syndicates could
build up their armed components and
engage the death squads and there will be war in the streets – a la Mexico.
Violence could escalate.
The bigger problem
is that there are many police personnel and politicians who are also involved
in criminality – many are big time criminals. This could be complicated if they
are targeted by the death squads. As the
spiral of violence continues and the killing spree escalates, there are two
possible reaction:
The first
is silence or even applause. The majority will support the killings and not
raise an outcry. They think that those suspects deserve to be killed. This is
the price to be paid if they want to walk at night without fear.
The other response is civil society
including the leaders of the Church could speak out and demand investigation
and accountability. The Commission on Human Rights will act and there will be
demand for congressional hearing.
If the
government fails to address the killings, there will be groups that will raise
the issue at the international level. A case could be filed in the
International Criminal Court. If he is successfully prosecuted, he could be
isolated internationally and sanctions could be imposed on the country like
what happened to Syria and Iran.
Meanwhile,
as the six months deadline expires and he is not able to stamp out criminality,
Duterte will be pressured to keep his word and resign from the presidency.
The possibility of resigning is remote since he has been
known to renege on his promises. He is also afraid that if he resigns, he is
vulnerable to lawsuits and could end up in prison.
Impeachment proceedings could be filed in congress
and the trial will be conducted by the senate. He will be most vulnerable
because he has very few allies among senators and representatives. Unlike
previous presidents who had the power to release pork barrel to representatives
and senators and therefore attracted turn-coats, this power has been taken away
by the Supreme Court due to its unconstitutionality. So Duterte will be unable
to control congress and senate.
There could
be two grounds for his impeachment: corruption (hidden wealth, failure to
declare in SALN his assets – ala CJ Corona) and human right violations
(extrajudicial killings). This could happen within the first six months.
If as he
promised, he will abolish congress and form a revolutionary government if he is
impeached, he will find it impossible. The
constitution does not give him such power so this would be an unconstitutional
and illegal act. To carry this out successfully he has to operate outside the
law. He needs the support of the police, the military, the political
parties. He also needs the support of
the citizenry who can go out to the streets and form as his people power that
will defend him. He is assured of one third of the adult population that supported
him and voted for him although how many are willing to fight it out in the
streets remains to be seen. He can rely on the support of Pastor Quiboloy – the
appointed son of God – and his followers. He can also rely on the Iglesia ni
Cristo. But there could also be many supporters who would likely turn against
him once the issue of corruption is proven (like what happened to Erap).
If during
the early period of his presidency, he is able to make peace with the communists
and enter into an alliance with them, he can count on their support to
establish a revolutionary government. He could have at his disposal their legal
organization, the mass bases and the armed component – the NPA. This is an
opportunity for them to later dominate the government and eventually seize
state power which is their ultimate objective.
The
PDP-LABAN is a hollow party with few members in the senate and congress, so it
cannot provide substantial support to Duterte in the halls of congress especially if an impeachment
proceeding is initiated.
Since he
does not have any legal basis for
dissolving congress and form a revolutionary government, Duterte cannot rely on
the police and military to support him. If they hold on to their
professionalism, they will not follow illegal orders. Besides, many in the military have branded
him as a traitor for his alliance with the CPP/NPA. So his order to close down
congress could be ignored as the impeachment proceedings continue.
There will
be turmoil in the streets as civil society and the Church mobilize rallies
against him and his supporters face them off. There could be clashes in the
streets.
As this is happening, due to uncertainty, the economy will
suffer. The capital flight that has started even before the elections will continue.
This will be worsened with his coalition with the communists and the clashes in
the streets. There could be an economic crisis if the uncertainty and
instability continue and if he tries to impose a nationalist and socialist
economy. If he is true to his socialist ideology, this could mean introducing a
socialist economy which usually includes state control of the means of
production and the nationalization of major industries (this type of socialism
has already been abandoned by former socialist countries like Russia, China and
Vietnam).
With his anti-US stance and perceived pro-China sentiments, and with his
alliance with the Communists, the US would probably make sure that he does not
stay in power for long since he is perceived as a threat to their long term
interest – which is the dominance in Asia and the South-China/West Philippine
Sea. It would not be surprising if the
CIA is already very busy.
There could be sections within the
military that will be organizing for a possible coup or for withdrawing their
support (like what happened during EDSA II that toppled Estrada in 2000). A
revolutionary coalition government with the Communists will provoke
counter-revolution.
What
happens next will depend on who will be the vice-president and how far Duterte
is able to carry out his intention in abolishing congress and installing a
revolutionary government in coalition
with the Communists.
If the
vice-president is Bongbong Marcos, he could take over as president if Duterte
is impeached or is forced to resign. However, civil society and the Church won’t
be enthusiastic to carry out another people power if it means handing over to
Bongbong the presidency. It will be the return of another Marcos to Malacanang.
If Lenny Robredo is the vice-president,
that will be another story. There will
be more vigorous effort to oust Duterte.
There are
other alternative scenarios beside what has been discussed above. One of the risks
that Duterte faces is an assassination attempt. This could come from the CIA ,
the military, or crime lords he is wants to eliminate extrajudicially. The
other uncertainty is his health. He is already 71 years old and suffering from several
diseases that will continue to worsen (Buerger's disease - the disease causes inflammation and
thrombosis in small and medium-sized blood vessels, typically in the legs and
leading to gangrene. It has been associated with smoking. Another is “Barret’s esophagus” that leads to
cancer). In an interview, he once said that he could be the first president to
die in Malacanang.
Thus, it is not certain if he can
complete his term of office or hold on to power. Duterte has been projected as
a superhero or a messiah who can save the Philippines. There is a tendency
to liken him to Mussolini and Hitler.
But Mussolini had his National Fascist Party and Blackshirts and Hitler had his
National Socialist Party and SS. Both dictators had strong political parties and organized
movements backing them. Duterte has none of this except his DDS, a moribund
PDP-Laban and possible support of the CPP/NDF/NPA which may not be enough.
Being commander in chief does not guarantee loyalty and support from the AFP if
he operates outside the constitution and is perceived by them as a traitor for
his connection with the CPP/NPA. Although he promised to double their salaries, that is not enough to buy
their loyalty. In a Rappler interview,
he hinted about a purge within the military for those who will not
cooperate and talked about the Manila Bay as wide enough for them (his comment
about the fish in Manila Bay getting fat is not only for criminals).
Hyperbole? If he does this, this could
even endanger him more.
What is most doubtful is if he
really can get things done and bring about genuine and meaningful change or
will he lead our country to ruin. He may have the political will but he lacks
the political machinery and the other leadership skills like vision,
compassion, integrity and emotional intelligence necessary to effect genuine
change. It is doubtful if he can effectively and single-handedly eliminate
criminality and corruption. He himself has been accused of being a criminal and
as corrupt as other politicians with the extrajudicial killings and allegations
of hidden wealth. His power is limited. The presidency is just one branch of
government. Congress is not like the city council that he can easily dominate,
dictate upon or abolish. He doesn’t have control of the Supreme Court. There
are independent institutions that can hound him if he commits any abuse of
power such as the Ombudsman and the Commission of Human Rights. He cannot do
anything he wants to get his own way no matter how much he may curse or bully
his way through. The whole country is not a city like Davao.
His other option is to just sit
back and relax and enjoy his remaining years in Malacanang and try to survive
the next six years, doing very little. But the specter of impeachment will
always be there due to allegations of hidden wealth which is not reflected in
his SALN. One thing is sure – those who voted him will be disappointed. But
this always happens because Filipinos always expect too much from their
presidents without realizing that the president’s power is limited – he cannot
be the Messiah or the Savior of the country. They fail to realize that change
begins within each one, and together they can change Philippine society.
A legacy that a Duterte presidency
could leave behind is that of government officials, police officers and
military personnel that have gotten used to extra-judicial killings, who think
of themselves as above the law and act as judge and executioner, thereby
weakening instead of reforming and strengthening the judicial and law
enforcement system. Another legacy could be that of imposing an autocratic rule
that had been rejected by People Power 30 years ago. The worst legacy is a
people who have lost their conscience – of knowing what is right and wrong –
fully supporting mass murder and the violation of human rights and disregarding the rule of law and due process, who think that there is nothing wrong with
cursing, committing adultery, lying and stealing. It is a people who have lost
their soul and freely embraced their dark side.
Let us pray
to God that we will be spared from this catastrophe.